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While Malcolm Turnbull is riding high in the polls the Liberal Party is in crisis.
It seems the electorate like the snake oil charm of Turnbull but a huge number within his own party seem to physically gag at the thought of him.
The parliamentary year has finished off with one Liberal member, Ian Macfarlane defecting to the National Party, and another one tipped to follow. This throws Turnbull’s caucus and Ministerial positions into chaos.
Meanwhile his second time around Deputy Leader, Julie Bishop is being attacked for switching her support from a former leader as she has done so often in the past. It has also emerged that Julie is indeed worthy of the name “Bishop” by slugging the taxpayer for a $30K flight with her partner.
We have the dumped Eric Abetz crossing the floor in the Senate and second guessing everything Turnbull says, all the while practicing his dagger throwing technique with an effigy of Julie Bishop.
Malcolm Turnbull did not impress Colonel Klink
Also making things easy for Turnbull is Peter Dutton. While as a Minister he is an utter failure behind the scenes he knows how to stir the pot of discontent like a master chef.
Even the idea of another conservative party being formed has already been publicly floated by Cory Bernardi and Andrew Bolt.
It’s fair to say that the far right wing of his Party are making Malcolm’s life a nightmare. It’s a nightmare that Malcolm is forced to grin and bear though given that he needs the support of the far right to have legislation passed and not be completely ineffectual as a Prime Minister.
So if Turnbull is so reliant on the far right, just how safe is his leadership? It’s a question many have asked.
My view is that with so many MP’s reliant on Turnbull’s popularity to have a chance at another term in parliament his leadership is safer than an each-way bet in a one horse race.
However after the election I’m not so sure.
Once another full term of government is secured all bets are off.
I haven’t seen, heard or read anyone discussing this possibility before, however I think considering the way the far right of the Party feel about Turnbull and the considerable size of that faction within not just caucus, but the Party at large, it is certainly a distinct possibility. Especially when you consider Turnbull has been rolled as leader by this faction once already.
I would not be surprised if there was a lot of frantic calls being made by those on the right at this moment ensuring extreme right candidates are pre-selected. The right faction will be looking to ensure they have the branches stacked, the branch records telling the right story and the right wing goon squad in full swing with the usual smear and bastardry of the Liberal Party pre-selection process.
Malcolm “What do you mean borrowed time?” Turnbull
This may auger well for some electorates, like Sydney’s Mitchell electorate in the Hills district, currently held by Alex Hawke. Electorates like this suffer with a benchwarmer for an MP, a member who has no merits to brag about aside from their high levels of utter inconsequence. Maybe they will now find themselves with a member who is capable of more than just showing up, you never know.
Turnbull has shown his political naivety in his promotion of both Mal Brough and Wyatt Roy both of whom are heavily involved in the Ashbygate scandal and may find themselves with criminal charges being laid. Not only that he promoted Arthur Sinodinos despite ICAC not having finished with matters surrounding him.
Those on the right will be hoping he hasn’t wisened up too much. Either way Turnbull is going to gave all powers of the right faction stacking numbers against him, and if things go to plan would be unlikely survive a leadership challenge after the next election.
So who would the right put up as leader?
Dutton would be a dead man walking and given his utter lack of popularity and charisma wouldn’t survive the public backlash.
My suspicion is that Scott Morrison would be handed the reins. He is arrogant enough to survive the backlash, and has support on both sides of the great Liberal factional divide.
No matter what any of the Coalition try to tell us, we are all seeing the animosity towards Turnbull spill over on an almost daily basis.
Next year those voting Malcolm Turnbull for Prime Minister could in actual fact be voting in one of his assassins.
I’m sure there will be a queue of them.
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There will be plenty of people who will never forget that Turnbull and by extension the LNP has screwed the NBN as it affects their livelihoods. And this will be a never-ending legacy for them as the consequences will be with us for the next decade. Also with Turnbull and the rest of the LNP celebrating christmas with champagne while innocent children are needlessly kept in prisons on Nauru and Christmas Island.
From early yesterday morning, what was on show, was a PM that maybe polling well but nothing else. For the last fortnight at least, we have seen a PM, oozing with charm but no authority.
We seen Bernadi cross the floor, because the legislation was changed without taking it back to party room.
The situation with Brough is just plain stupid. PM refuses to take any action. Just digs his head into the sand.
Police investigations were in play when he appointed him. Why why why???
All PM had to do, was follow procedure, stand him aside to police inquiries finalised. Why why why???
It seems Hunt is not travelling too well in Paris. All PM took with him. was his slogan of ‘innovation” . No substance.
Government look chaotic, in shambles while Labor oozed confidence. Even Greens finished year on back foot.
Would have been good if Abbott could have been allowed to lead the libs to electoral oblivion. It would have cleared out the right wing nutters. Turnbull could then have taken over and turned them into a truly liberal party perhaps
Pete you didn’t mention Toxic Tony (Waringa’s Lazarus) Abbott in your prospective Turnbull replacements.If he appears as a contender for his current seat for next years election, then it would be odds on he has no intention of spending 3 years on the back bench, seething over his knife wielding dethroners,
Once Mal looses his charm he will be gone, that is what he is banking on to get the Liberals back in at the next election,He doesn’t have policies of his own ,because he sold his soul and kept all of Abbotts to be PM ,
If the Australian voters fall for that crap again ,i say you deserve all the pain the Liberal’s inflict on you,Turnbull is a business man ,and only knows how to look after his mates ,he could care less about the middle and low income earners ,
If the labor party can’t sell the message ‘a vote for LNP is not necessarily a vote for Mal’ in the run up to the election they might as well take their bats and balls and leave politics altogether.
Wixxy, I love your work but this piece won’t make it onto the mixtape.
Bernardi has been promising/threatening to start a new party for 5-10 years at least. Morrison is dead meat among the sooky right, especially as he is the first Treasurer since Holt who has to be carried by the PM. Abbott and Abetz are just losers – like Peter Costello, except they’ve actually had a go.
The key metric was the vote Kevin Andrews got running for Deputy against JBish: 30/102. That’s your diehard right vote right there. With polls the way they are I doubt there’d be 5 Turnbull voters with buyers’ remorse – the only one I can think of was Macfarlane, and he’s taking himself out of future ballots.
What follows needs a disclaimer: my prognostications are rubbish. I thought Abbott was so bad he wouldn’t get there at all.
Turnbull has nowhere to go but down. Menzies, Fraser, Hawke, and Howard all went backwards seeking a second term.
Look to the 4-5 Nat seats in northern NSW and know they will find a way not only to lose heartland seats but blame it on Turnbull. Dutton could lose his seat if Qld Labor display the sort of never-say-die form they showed in January, and if they decline to play some Rudd-like double game. Give Labor 1-2 seats in the other states and we are talking about the Coalition in the high 70s in the HoR – back in, but only just. Turnbull has the gloss knocked off him and Abbott gets to say (falsely) that he coulda done better. Then things will be interesting.
@my say..interesting polling by Essential who usually poll every week…….2PP over weeks 3/11/15 – 01/12/15
Liberal National 53.5, 53, 52, 51%
Labor 46 47 48 49%
Poll size 1770
Next weeks will be interesting following the turmoil in the Govt last couple of weeks
Yeah, I love your work too, Wixxy, as I do Mr Elder’s. These are ‘unprogisticatible’ weeks, and we are headed into reindeer-horns-on-cars heat-induced summer slumber. Just when things were getting interesting.
Turnbull’s ‘lack of judgement’, (coined by Keating, I believe), has now become a truism almost too embarrassing in its prominence to even mention.
Turnbull shoulda/coulda foreseen the blow-back from Brough/Roy/Pyne. But in true style, he didn’t, or couldn’t.
As I pen my inconsequential post, I smile at the sight of hustings in the Lower North Shore this morning. Another petulant playground refugee wandering off, leaving an expensive taxpayer-funded by-election for no particular perceived benefit for constituents.
This evening’s reported returns will, perhaps, slow the wild swings of the political compass, and give some idea of what awaits us when we awake from the torpor.
At the moment Mendacious Mal seems unassailable, but there’s a way to go yet & if Brough & the rest of that rotten borough cop increasing unfavourable publicity, Mendacious may start to be seen for what he is.
He’s an arrogant vain twat with an over abundance of self importance and a lack of political judgment or nous.
WRT Julie Bishop, how come she’s the only one copping flack for Liesalot’s dethroning and not the treacherous Mendacious?
Just as an afterthought, will Mendacious be so popular when Labor hopefully starts to spruik his sale of Fraudband to Telstra @ $36bn loss while simultaneously gouging the poor, low paid, disadvantaged, disabled and Indigenous to pay for it?